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Real Estate Market Forecast: How the Presidential Elections will Affect the Fourth Quarter of 2020

Historically, there have been recorded correlations between Real Estate Sales and the Federal Elections, placed in a unique situation such as this year’s pandemic, we want to know, how is Q4 looking like for Real Estate?

Meyers Research Clinic, a local Real Estate research company says that,

“Over the past 13 election cycles, there is a contrast in the median change in sales activity from October to November.”


Considering the change in this study, Realtor.com states that the economy is more likely to be better than COVID.

“Historically, a strong economy favors an incumbent president. Will voters judge the President against a pre-COVID baseline or COVID-adjusted baseline? We expect the economy is likely to be better than the COVID ‘worst case’ but not fully recovered before the vote.
In our early-March survey of spring buyers, which was in the field as concerns mounted but before COVID shelter-in-place orders became widespread, the share of respondents indicating they were not planning to purchase a home within the next year on account of the 2020 election was actually higher than those indicating that COVID was the cause of their not purchasing within the next year. “

Though Dima Williams of Forbes Magazine thinks otherwise on the matter of the election being greatly effectual to home sales, as mortgage rates have been at a record low, and most first-time homebuyers are looking into taking advantage of these rates…

“…the upcoming presidential election might do little to impede first-time buyers or those shopping for lower-to-median values homes.”

Implying smaller home sales are to be expected, but a dip too, from higher-income buyers who are on a lookout for new tax laws that could be passed as soon as a new-elect is in position.

So is the Real Estate industry looking good?

The First American remains optimistic about it:

“Bolstered by record-low mortgage rates and demand stemming from millennials aging into their household formation years, the potential for existing-home sales will likely continue to rise.”

It’s safe to conclude that the Real Estate industry will continue at a steady pace, as long as demands for homes are in accord with supply.


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Shala Saniyan

646299 Mobile: 214-395-9100 Office: 972-732-6002


17732 Preston Road Suite 100
Dallas, TX 75252

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