Historically, there have been recorded correlations between Real Estate Sales and the Federal Elections, placed in a unique situation such as this year’s pandemic, we want to know, how is Q4 looking like for Real Estate?
Meyers Research Clinic, a local Real Estate research company says that,
“Over the past 13 election cycles, there is a contrast in the median change in sales activity from October to November.”
“Historically, a strong economy favors an incumbent president. Will voters judge the President against a pre-COVID baseline or COVID-adjusted baseline? We expect the economy is likely to be better than the COVID ‘worst case’ but not fully recovered before the vote.
In our early-March survey of spring buyers, which was in the field as concerns mounted but before COVID shelter-in-place orders became widespread, the share of respondents indicating they were not planning to purchase a home within the next year on account of the 2020 election was actually higher than those indicating that COVID was the cause of their not purchasing within the next year. “
Though Dima Williams of Forbes Magazine thinks otherwise on the matter of the election being greatly effectual to home sales, as mortgage rates have been at a record low, and most first-time homebuyers are looking into taking advantage of these rates…
“…the upcoming presidential election might do little to impede first-time buyers or those shopping for lower-to-median values homes.”
Implying smaller home sales are to be expected, but a dip too, from higher-income buyers who are on a lookout for new tax laws that could be passed as soon as a new-elect is in position.
So is the Real Estate industry looking good?
The First American remains optimistic about it:
“Bolstered by record-low mortgage rates and demand stemming from millennials aging into their household formation years, the potential for existing-home sales will likely continue to rise.”
It’s safe to conclude that the Real Estate industry will continue at a steady pace, as long as demands for homes are in accord with supply.